The Presidential Race - Reading The Tea Leafs - More Questions Than Answers

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

To be one hundred percent fair, Republicans could retain the White House this year; nevertheless I do not believe they will. In fact they should have never lost Congress, nevertheless they did, mainstream, republicans were very surprised of the 2006 congressional results, as almost everyone, this time they seem resigned to loose the White House, or at least they won’t feel surprised if they do. Why? They feel down, feisty, but down. The republicans have done mistakes, without any doubt, some of them, major mistakes, but in an election year with only 4.8 percent unemployment rate they should feel happier but they don’t. They should feel more confident, considering they have a nominee that appeals greatly to the independent and the moderate, and that the democrats are engaged in an awful confrontation, additionally whoever becomes their nominee will be of an untested material, a woman or a black male.

Common wisdom suggests that divided democrats with an untested type of nominee should not be a match for someone like John McCain. Nevertheless, again, mainstream republicans aren’t feeling good, simply they seem unable to get along with him, or they do not want to get along with him.

Perhaps republicans do not want neither the White House nor recover Congress; perhaps they assume that the next four years the US will face extreme economic turmoil and serious terrorist attacks affecting the biggest cities in the country such as New York, DC and LA. Therefore, it is better for them to see the spectacle from the distance while a democrat president and a democrat congress juggles with one major problem after another. Perhaps republicans see that in four years they would be able to return to power with a candidate of their like and additionally retake congress. Considering this scenario, perhaps the democrats shouldn’t take the White House but let McCain to be the next president, so far appears that John McCain is as a big pain in the butt for republicans as a democrat would be, with the big caveat that anything going wrong during the next four years would be blame on the Republicans and not on the Democrats.