The Establishments and their Troubles - Part II

or the year of living dangerously

Alexander P. De Filippi

Saturday, February 09, 2008

The Democrat powerful establishment is having for first time in a very long time, decades, great difficulties in assuring the nomination of its favorite, in this case Senator Hillary Clinton. The establishment has almost always been able to defeat the rebel, no matter how well organized and enthusiastic the rebel and their supporters have been, as happened with Governor Dean back in 2004. The reasons why they are having so much problems with the present rebel, Senator Obama, are varies, in fact requires several detailed pages to explain it and is beyond the scope of this short article. Nevertheless, I will mention just one, the big TV, newspaper, and radio networks (they are one of the members of the Democrat establishment, in my humble opinion) have insisted so much, in order to improve their ranking among other things, that both parties are corrupts, that a perception against usual politics has been created. Lou Dobbs, Bill O’Reilly and many other commentators in the media have attacked politicians in both parties, the ones they do not favor (they haven’t been impartial), that an impression in people minds have been created (correctly to an extent) that both parties are corrupt, hence all or most politicians are corrupt as well. Because most politicians are older white males, a very simplistic perception is around, both parties are corrupt, politicians are corrupts, then, white older males, who are the faces of these parties, are corrupt as well. Senator Obama, looks different from the usual politician, younger than most, and black, that set him apart from the views about politics as usual, hence many democrats and more and more independents and moderates as well are given him a serious look. If the phenomenon continues and he keeps captivating democrats, and gaining support among moderates and independents, perhaps he not only have a chance of winning the democrats nomination but also the presidential election as well, and that would be pandemonium for both establishments. In fact, both establishments would be running to get from him some kind of deal, if they do not get it, could Senator Obama become the Salvador Allende of the United States?

The republican establishment is in troubles as well, no as much as the democrat’s, but nonetheless in muddy terrain, John McCain has never been its favorite. The Republican establishment avoided getting themselves in troubles by remaining, at least in appearance, out of the presidential race, they did not try to push governor Huckabee down the throat of the republicans, perhaps they had doubts about his candidacy from the very beginning, if that was the case, they were right. They saw that in Iowa Huckabee won, but the Iowans participated, moderates and independents included, in the Democrat caucus by a very large margin. The confirmation that Huckabee was a weak candidate came out of South Carolina a state that the governor should have won easily. Therefore, John McCain, the man the establishment hated, has become precisely the one that may save the republicans from loosing the White House, it appears that Huckabee would be a good option as a vice-president, but if the Obama phenomenon keeps growing and election models star to show that he can win over independents and moderates even in November, Huckabee may be a bad option as vice-president as well, and, maybe, John McCain will need another moderate as a vice-president, perhaps a minority, perhaps a Hispanic or a woman.